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It was a hot day at Tampa Bay Downs and the upcoming race was a stinker. I couldn’t find a horse to make a case for and decided I’d take a look at the runners in the saddling ring to see if anything would jump out at me. As I leaned against the fence the horses slowly circled in front of me and I realized that they all looked uniformly mediocre. As the seven horse passed, the jockey quickly and covertly flashed three fingers to the guy standing beside me.

The way he shielded his hand from view made me realize it was meant for the man to my left. The man immediately rushed off to the teller’s window and made a bet. I was right behind him. I bet the three to win. Not a big bet, but enough to make it interesting. It was one of the few times in my life that I took a tip and acted on it.

The three was at 7-1 when they went to post and he won for fun. Now first of all, in the tipping jockey’s defense, I’d like to say that his horse was a long shot that didn’t figure, so I don’t think there was any skulduggery on his part. He was giving his friend a tip, probably based on the fact that he knew more about the horses than the rest of us. At least, that’s what I’d like to believe.

Whatever the case may be, standing at the fence and watching the people and horses had resulted in a nice win for me. If I hadn’t been there, it wouldn’t have happened. One of the least utilized but most powerful handicapping methods is simply to be an observer. If you’re going to bet on horses and the people who train and ride them, then you should know how to spot a lame horse and also how to spot a horse that is fit and ready.

The cheaper the race, the more important this visual handicapping becomes. Naturally, in a stakes race for big money, the horses almost always look great, but in the bottom of the barrel claiming and non winners races, current condition means everything. Past performances are just that, "past." The race will take place today so the condition of the horse matters now. The cheaper the quality of the stock, the less likely each runner is to keep its form.

Trainers struggle every day to keep their horses fit and squeeze as many wins as possible out of each one and it is an epic battle. Therefore, a sharp handicapper often spots a horse that is on its toes or who looks good based on its weight and the shine of its coat and other factors. The first time you see a horse make some notes. Then the next time you see it, compare notes. Is it better, worse, or about the same?

A very good angle is a horse in cheap claiming races that has won at the track and distance in the past. You notice that it looks lackluster, perhaps you might even say dull, the firs time you check it out in the paddock. It runs a dull race that day finishing out of the money. The next time you see it, however, it looks much better. Its head is held high and it is on its toes, its coat gleaming. You know it won at this level before and now you know it is improving.

Paddock Grid System may not win, but it figures to at least finish in the money.

The people who rely strictly on the past performances will not know that the horse is improving based on its last race. The only way to spot that change will be to actually view it in the paddock. That gives you an edge and that is how you win when you’re handicapping horse races for profit.